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#SBFPresidentialPardon: He Filed. FTT Jumped 50%. Trump Already Said No. Today SBF formally applied for a presidential pardon — the filing appeared this morning on the DOJ Office of the Pardon Attorney website. The application is for a "pardon after completion of sentence," meaning even if granted, it wouldn't release him early. He'd still serve 25 years. The pardon would only restore certain civil rights once the sentence is done. FTT jumped 50% on the news anyway. Markets price hope, not legal reality. The political math is brutal. Trump told the New York Times in January he has "no intention" of pardoning SBF and grouped him with figures like Nicolás Maduro who would not receive clemency. The White House has pointed back to that interview every time the question has been raised since. Pro-crypto Republicans in Congress pushed back sharply — one called Bankman-Fried "a piece of s**t" unfit for mercy. The contrast with other pardons makes SBF's case look even harder. Trump granted CZ a full pardon in October 2025. Ross Ulbricht walked free. The BitMEX founders were pardoned. But those cases had a different political texture — none involved an $8 billion hole in customer funds, seven felony convictions, or someone who spent years as one of the largest donors to Democratic campaigns before switching to praising Trump from a prison cell. FTX customers have now recovered 100-120% of their claims at November 2022 petition prices. SBF's argument — that customers are "nearly twice" repaid — is technically true. It's also completely beside the point for a fraud conviction. Polymarket gives him 7% odds. The filing is real. The answer is probably still no. #SBFPresidentialPardon