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🍕 This year’s Pizza Festival, OKX Planet invites you to "get creative"! Whose meme is the most abstract? Whose image is the most outrageous? Who can create the "most expensive pizza in history" new version? Post with #OKXPizzaDay and @OKX星球, bring your jokes, meme images, Memes, and abstract literature all in! Top-quality content is selected and pinned daily, plus USDT and OKX merchandise waiting for you 🚀 🔗：https://oyidl.net/ul/nErPHA4

🔔 Major Market Narrative Reversal: From "When Will Rates Cut" to "Will There Be a Rate Hike" 🌸 Just a few months ago, the market was debating "how many rate cuts will happen this year." Today, the discussion has shifted to "whether there will be a rate hike before year-end." Let's first look at the 👀 key data. ‼️ Key Data: - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield intraday neared 5.20%, the highest level since 2007 - FedWatch: Probability of a rate hike in December continues to rise - Interest rate swap market: Implied probability of at least one rate hike before year-end has surpassed 80% - Gold is under pressure and falling; BTC is also under continuous pressure amid macro tightening 🔍 Quick Science: Why is the 30-year Treasury yield an important signal? The 30-year Treasury represents the market's pricing of "ultra-long-term" interest rate trends. When the 30-year yield keeps rising, it means the market believes high rates are not a short-term phenomenon but will persist for a long time—this systematically lowers valuations of all risk assets because the higher the "risk-free rate," the greater the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. 5.20% is the highest point since 2007; the last time we saw this level was on the eve of the financial crisis. 📌 Three questions to understand this narrative reversal ❶ How fast is the shift from "rate cut expectations" to "80% probability of rate hike"? A few months ago, the market priced in "1-2 rate cuts this year," but now the interest rate swap market is pricing in "a rate hike before year-end"—a complete reversal in direction. This shift is driven not by a single factor but by the combined forces of geopolitical risks (Hormuz), energy prices, and inflation expectations all pulling in the same direction. This resonance is the hardest macro force to counter. ❷ What does a 5.20% 30-year yield mean for the crypto market? High interest rates directly suppress risk asset valuations. With the 30-year Treasury offering 5%+ risk-free returns, why would institutions take on BTC's volatility risk? Capital will marginally continue to flow into Treasuries. More importantly, high rates will also squeeze the financing capacity of crypto-native institutions—models like Strategy that rely on bond issuance to buy BTC will face significantly higher financing costs in a high-rate environment. ❸ Gold is under pressure; will BTC follow the decline or chart an independent path? Gold's pressure indicates that the strong dollar logic is suppressing all non-USD assets. BTC will find it difficult to fully decouple in the short term—the combination of high rates + strong dollar historically has been almost unfriendly to BTC. However, if rate hike expectations are ultimately confirmed and trigger recession signals, BTC might regain capital attention with the narrative of "inflation hedge + decentralized reserve." 💬 The narrative has switched from "rate cuts" to "rate hikes." What do you think BTC will do next? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

🔥 Goldman Sachs, Strategy, and BitMine—three major institutions facing the 2026 crypto market have made three completely different choices. 👀 Three institutions, three paths: 🔴 Goldman Sachs (retreat and reposition) Completely liquidated XRP and Solana-related ETFs in Q1; BlackRock's ETHA position shrank by about 70%; BTC ETF reduced by about 10%, shifting to increase holdings in crypto concept stocks like Coinbase. 🟢 Strategy (full-speed bet on BTC) Spent $2.01 billion in a single week to increase holdings by 24,869 BTC, continuing the "buy and hold" BTC accumulation strategy. 🔵 BitMine (betting on ETH staking yields) Holds over 5.27 million ETH (4.37% of the entire network), 89% already staked, with an annualized staking yield of about $289 million. Goal: reach 5% of the entire network's holdings by 2026. 📌 Three questions to understand this divergence ❶ Why did Goldman Sachs liquidate ETFs and switch to concept stocks? Directly holding crypto ETFs means net asset value fluctuates with coin prices, putting huge pressure on institutional risk control and reporting. Switching to crypto concept stocks retains upside potential in the crypto market while categorizing assets as "stocks," a more traditional asset class—resulting in lower compliance costs and easier explanations. This is not bearish on crypto but a more "comfortable" holding method for institutions. ❷ Strategy spent $2 billion in a week buying BTC—is this still normal? According to Strategy's logic, they continuously issue debt to finance BTC purchases, turning the company into a leveraged BTC holding vehicle. After holding 815,000 BTC, they added another 24,869 BTC, signaling only one thing: Saylor believes the current price is still worth buying. The question is, how long can their financing capacity last? ❸ BitMine betting on ETH staking—can this model work? 5.27 million ETH, 89% staked, $289 million annualized yield—this is a business model using ETH as an "interest-bearing asset," similar to collecting rent from real estate. The goal of holding 5% of the entire network means one company would control 1/20 of ETH's total supply, giving it significant staking influence. The risk lies in ETH price declines directly impacting the balance sheet, while staked ETH liquidity is limited, preventing quick stop-loss. 💬 As an ordinary investor, which institution's approach do you lean towards? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️#高盛清仓，机构持仓分化

#KelpDAO: rsETH Bridge Revived, Solv Moves $700 Million ִ 🌸 LayerZero announces completion of security upgrade, rsETH cross-chain channel reopens, but Solv Protocol announces moving over $700 million in assets away. The bridge is fixed, but the whales no longer want to use this bridge. 📌 Three questions to see the real cost of this turmoil‼️ Q: The security upgrade is done, so why is Solv still leaving? A: Technical vulnerabilities can be fixed, but broken trust cannot be restored. The $292 million vulnerability triggered a "red line" in risk control for institutions; internal compliance may have directly listed LayerZero as a migration target, unrelated to subsequent upgrades. The timing of the migration itself is the answer. Q: After Kelp, Solv also left. Is Chainlink CCIP the biggest winner? A: The destinations of these two large-scale migrations are the same, not a coincidence. CCIP is backed by the Chainlink oracle network, with security endorsement more recognized by institutions. What’s more worth noting: which other protocols are watching? Once a blacklist effect forms, panic spreads faster than technical fixes. Q: The confirmation threshold increased from 42 to 64—is this progress or a cost? A: A higher threshold means stronger security but also increased cross-chain delay. High-frequency users and arbitrage bots will quietly shift to other bridges. Not a fatal blow, but a continuous marginal loss. 💬 Do you think LayerZero can fully recover from this crisis? 👏🏻 Share your judgment in the comments below ⬇️

🔥Must Watch This Week: 5.18-5.24 Powell's Final Meeting Minutes, Nvidia Earnings, Possible US-Iran Conflict Resumption 🌸 A new week brings highlights in macroeconomics, geopolitics, and crypto. Here's an early rundown to keep you informed. 📌 Key Events This Week: 🔹 May 18 (Monday) Coinbase launches four AI infrastructure stock perpetual contracts, including Cerebras Systems (CBRS), TSMC (TSMC), Nebius Group (NBIS), and Bloom Energy (BE), supporting long, short, leverage, and 24/7 trading. Stock perpetual contracts + crypto platforms are becoming an increasingly common combo. ⚠️ VOOI Light service ends today due to the infrastructure provider terminating the chain abstraction solution. Users must withdraw funds before today or risk losing them. Those with positions must act today. 🔸 May 21 (Wednesday) ❶ The last FOMC meeting minutes of the "Powell era" will be released (2:00 AM Beijing time). This is the detailed record of the April 29 meeting and the final minutes before Waller takes over as chair, outlining the committee's stance. ❷ Nvidia earnings report (early morning Beijing time on May 21). Since the March low, the stock has risen 36%. The market views this report as a barometer for AI infrastructure momentum; whether growth sustains will directly impact tech stocks and crypto market risk sentiment. 🔹 May 22 (Thursday) ⚠️ Deadline for filing claims in the Qian Zhimin money laundering case, involving 60,000 BTC and over 128,000 victims. So far, only 8.8% (about 11,300 people) have submitted claims. Affected victims should note the deadline. 🔸 Others (time TBD) ❶ The US and Israel may resume military strikes against Iran as early as this week. The Pentagon is prepared, with options including intensified bombing or special forces ground operations. Negotiations are currently deadlocked. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz is rising again, requiring ongoing monitoring of oil prices and risk sentiment. ❷ SpaceX may publicly file for an IPO as early as this week, aiming to raise up to $75 billion with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion, potentially the largest IPO in history. Elon Musk has clearly stated "not selling a single share." 🎯 Potential Crypto Market Variables This Week: FOMC minutes reveal the real divisions behind 4 dissenting votes → If hawkish stance exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations shrink further → BTC under pressure; Nvidia earnings beat expectations → AI narrative strengthens → risk appetite rises → crypto benefits; US-Israel military actions resume → geopolitical premium returns → short-term volatility intensifies. 👀 Wednesday is the core observation window with two major events landing the same day. Which event are you most focused on this week? 👏🏻 Feel free to discuss in the comments below ⬇️

🌸 CLARITY Bill Committee passes 15:9: The toughest hurdle is cleared, but 60 votes are still needed Just yesterday we were discussing "whether it can enter Markup tomorrow," and today the result is out: 15:9, passed. This is the clearest victory so far in the legislative process of the CLARITY Bill. ‼️ Key information: ❶ The Senate Banking Committee voted 15:9 on Thursday to pass the CLARITY Bill ❷ All Republican members voted in favor, and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego crossed party lines to support it ❸ The core goal of the bill: to provide a unified regulatory framework for the digital asset industry, clarifying the jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC ❹ Next steps: Full Senate vote (requires 60 votes) → House review → President Trump signs into law 🔍 Quick science: Why does the full Senate vote require 60 votes? The U.S. Senate has 100 seats; ordinary legislation only requires a simple majority of 51 votes to pass. But any senator can initiate a "filibuster" to delay the vote indefinitely. To end prolonged debate and force a vote, a supermajority of 60 votes is needed. This means the CLARITY Bill still needs at least 9 Democratic senators to cross party lines in the Senate to truly reach the final vote. 💬 Will the CLARITY Bill get 60 votes in the full chamber? Stay tuned 👁 #CLARITY法案：委员会15:9表决通过

🌸 A signal that many people don't pay much attention to, but every time it erupts, it causes the global market to collectively turn sour, has lit up again today. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.54%, the highest level since June 1997 — a figure not seen in nearly 29 years. ‼️ Key data: Japan 10-year government bond yield: 2.54%, highest since June 1997 USD/JPY: 157.419, yen weakening in sync Japan's long-term interest rates continue to climb, accelerating the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization process 🔍 Quick science: What is yen carry trade? For the past thirty years, Japan has maintained near-zero or even negative interest rates. Global institutional investors have thus developed a fixed operation: borrow low-interest yen → convert to higher-yield currencies like the dollar → invest in risk assets such as US stocks and crypto to earn the interest rate differential. This trade is extremely large, estimated to be in the tens of trillions of dollars. The problem is: once Japanese interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing yen increases, making this trade "unprofitable." Institutions will sell risk assets and buy back yen to repay — this process is called "carry trade unwinding," which can trigger linked selling pressure on global assets in a short time. 📌 Three perspectives on this new yield high: ❶ 2.54% is not just a number, but a signal of structural turning point Japan's farewell to the "zero interest rate era" is not overnight — but every new high in yields confirms this trend is real. When Japanese government bonds offer nearly 3% risk-free returns, domestic institutions (insurance companies, pension funds) will start reallocating overseas assets back to the domestic bond market. This is a slow-moving variable, but the direction is certain. ❷ USD/JPY at 157 proves carry trades have not yet been unwound on a large scale If carry trades were unwound massively, the yen should appreciate sharply (institutions buying back yen) — but with USD/JPY still at 157, it shows the market has not panicked to unwind positions, and carry trade exposure remains large. This means risk has not been released but is accumulating. ❸ The next trigger point: Bank of Japan's stance Every BOJ policy meeting and Governor Ueda Kazuo's speeches are potential triggers for carry trade unwinding. If the BOJ signals further rate hikes, USD/JPY at 157 could quickly reverse, putting global risk assets under liquidity pressure. 💬 How big do you think the risk of yen carry trade unwinding is now? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your judgment in the comments ⬇️

#特朗普再驳伊朗和平计划 👀 A good week starts with the troublesome old player. He's back, and so is the worst-case scenario. 📰 Trump announced that Iran's response to the peace plan is "unacceptable," and Iranian media subsequently confirmed that Iran has officially rejected the U.S. proposal—negotiations have reached a deadlock. This is the clearest sign of a breakdown in multiple rounds of talks. 📌 Three perspectives on this breakdown ❶ The four words "unacceptable" have closed all short-term negotiation windows. The last time the U.S. and Iran hit such a deadlock at the negotiating table, it was followed by escalated sanctions or military actions. The current question is not "when will negotiations resume," but "who will cave first under pressure." ❷ Oil price at $100 is a critical psychological threshold. $100 oil is the trigger line for global inflation expectations. Once it stabilizes and continues, with the Federal Reserve already at a 72.6% probability of "no rate cuts within the year," rising oil prices will further increase this probability. ❸ Lockdowns in the second half of the year = ongoing restructuring of the global energy supply chain. High and volatile energy prices will be the underlying theme of the global macro environment in the second half of the year. 🤔 Trump’s tough stance seems completely indifferent to the pressure of the midterm elections. Oil at $100 and rising energy bills have always been poison for election prospects—but he seems not to care at all. Is it true indifference, or is he confident that before Iran fully caves, voters will blame Tehran first?

⚠️ April Nonfarm Payrolls to be released tonight at 20:30 The market expects 62,000 new jobs added in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, and annual wage inflation rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. The numbers are low—but when interpreting this data, there is a new benchmark you must know. 🔍 Quick science: How to judge the "strength" of Nonfarm Payroll data? Traditional standard: Monthly increases below 100,000 are usually seen as a sign of labor market weakness. However, Fed official Logan previously stated publicly that currently, about 30,000 new jobs per month can achieve supply-demand balance—the benchmark has shifted. This means the expected 62,000 tonight is not actually a "collapse" under the new framework, but rather "weak but still acceptable." So the most important thing tonight is not the number itself, but its distance from the 30,000 and 100,000 lines. 📌 What to focus on tonight? ❶ Employment numbers: Above 100,000 → Strong employment, rate cut expectations pushed further out, USD strengthens, BTC under pressure Between 60,000–100,000 → In line with expectations, limited market volatility, status quo maintained Below 30,000 → Below Logan's "balance line," recession expectations rise, Fed forced to reassess, rate cut expectations quickly rebound ❷ Wage inflation: If the annual wage rate truly rises to 3.8% → Inflation pressure reignites → Even with weak employment, the Fed will find it hard to cut rates easily, deepening the dilemma 📊 How low are current rate cut expectations? 🔻 According to CME FedWatch data: Probability of a 25bp cut in June: only 5.2%; Probability of no cuts this year: 72.6% ⬇️ The rate cut window is at a recent low; tonight's data is the most important short-term repricing opportunity. What do you think will happen with Nonfarm Payrolls tonight?

#CLARITY Act: Finalized Stablecoin Yield Rules https://oyidl.me/ul/7lcuEOe 🌸 Following the finalization of the stablecoin yield rules a few days ago, things are progressing much faster than expected. This week, talks have already started about the bill entering committee next week. U.S. crypto legislation is visibly shifting from "discussion" to "execution." ⏰ Latest progress timeline: 🔹 Early May: Coinbase policy head announced a compromise with the Senate on the core dispute over stablecoin yields, officially restarting the bill 🔹 Consensus Miami: White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt set July 4 as the target for House passage 🔹 Latest: Coinbase executives revealed the bill could enter the Senate Banking Committee markup as early as next week 🔹 Meanwhile: Brazil's central bank announced a ban on stablecoins for cross-border payment settlements starting October 1 🔍 Quick explainer: What is Markup? Markup is a key step in the U.S. legislative process—committee members review and amend the bill line by line, then vote on whether to send it to the full chamber for a vote. Entering markup means the bill has passed preliminary review and is officially in the legislative sprint phase. Reaching this stage usually means the sponsors have confirmed enough votes to support it. 📌 Three perspectives on this acceleration ❶ The July 4 target is no coincidence Independence Day carries full symbolic weight—the White House team setting this date as a goal is itself a political statement: crypto legislation is a priority agenda for this administration, not just talk. From "markup next week" to "House passage by July 4," the Senate’s review window is actually quite tight, meaning all parties are pushing under high pressure. ❷ Coinbase’s compromise solved the toughest issue Previously, the stablecoin yield clause was the biggest sticking point—the banking system feared stablecoins would become shadow deposits, siphoning off savings. Coinbase reaching a compromise with the Senate on this shows stakeholders have found a coexistence boundary. The bill’s restart is backed by genuine political consensus, not forced progress. ❸ Brazil’s ban vs. U.S. framework: global stablecoin regulation is splitting The U.S. chose "drawing red lines, building frameworks, and providing compliance pathways"; Brazil chose "directly banning cross-border settlements." Both approaches are being implemented this year, meaning stablecoin projects must choose between different jurisdictions. Compliance-focused stablecoins like USDC benefit under the U.S. framework; while stablecoin protocols targeting global cross-border settlements will face an increasingly fragmented regulatory environment. 💬 Do you think the CLARITY Act will pass before July 4? 👏🏻 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments ⬇️#CLARITY法案最早下周进入审议