Degen price

"Please open your eyes: Introduction to prediction market trading (1) Guide to finding bankers" Maybe you haven't thought about it, but our gameplay as a degen on meme can also be used in the prediction market. This series will use the most familiar language, the simplest logical analysis and real cases to help you quickly get started predicting market trading. In the first article, we start with everyone's favorite "looking for a banker". 1. 1 Why does the logic of "finding a banker" also apply? Predictive trading platforms like @Polymarket, because they are completely on-chain, all positions, position opening times, odds changes are transparent. This means that you can check the accounts of "insider traders" just like you can check the accounts of "insider traders" on the Meme chain to find the rat warehouse and the address of the banker. Recall how we find bankers in the primary market: 1️⃣ Single position 2️⃣ The wallet was created at a relatively recent time 3️⃣ There is an obvious large change And these characteristics are also true in PolyMarket. Let's start from the psychology of an insider: If you know something in advance before everyone, even if you admit to keeping it a secret, but in the case of complete anonymity, no consequences, and money - Do you have the slightest urge to bet early and make some money with poor information? Human nature is fragile in the face of interests, and the biggest charm of the chain is that all "human impulses" will be written into the chain. In some event predictions, people with advance news often suddenly place large orders on the market and open positions in the direction of extremely low odds, and all we need is to catch them from the traces on the chain. 1.2 Start with the real insider situation Let's first look at two typical cases. 🔹 Nobel Peace Prize laureate prediction On October 10, 2025, about 11 hours before the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, the market suddenly changed. Candidate María Corina Machado (Venezuelan opposition leader) has skyrocketed from 3.6% to 73% odds to win. On-chain data shows: - Account 6741: brand new account, no history, bet $48364 on María Corina Machado about 12 hours before the draw to win In the end, it made a profit of 7w+u (and there were actually several very similar accounts), and Norwegian officials launched an investigation afterwards, suspecting that there was an information leak within the Nobel Prize Committee. Let's take a look at 6741 (now he played something else, but at that time it was only related to the Nobel Peace Prize, and met all the characteristics of our judgment of "banker wallet" and "rat warehouse": single position, new creation, large bets. ）: 🔹Monad Airdrop Prediction Before the Monad mainnet went live on October 14, the "Whether to issue an airdrop before October 31st" market on Polymarket was abnormal. Multiple new accounts open positions at the same time—— - Collective bet "No (no airdrop)" - A single investment of $10,000–$100,000 for a total of more than $200,000 - Wallets only participate in this market, no other records - The odds are pushed all the way up by them from 50% to 83% (No option) One of the most widely circulated accounts is the "dalitrader" in the picture below, which meets all the characteristics of our judgment of "banker wallet" and "rat warehouse": single position, new creation, large bets. As a result, Monad did delay the airdrop in the future, and they also benefited from it. 1.3 How to find an insider account? Tools and Twitter blogger recommendations? In fact, it is the same logic as when we find conspiracy addresses when playing memes, we have already talked about it in the first part, and in the second part, we have also confirmed the reference of relevant characteristics through cases. There are already tools that can help us find such "insider accounts", and there are also Twitter accounts that broadcast abnormal information. For example, @Polysights, open its website and you can even see a dedicated "Insider Finder" section to help you filter bets on such insider accounts. Back on Twitter, @Atlantislq often post some suspected insider behavior, such as Monad airdrops and the Bolivian election. For more tool/account/trader address recommendations, I will also share a list of my own favorites later. Finally: This article is only used as a popular science of the prediction market and related cases, and does not constitute any investment advice.

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